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The Future is Faster Than You Think - Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler

RACHEL 은비 2021. 7. 13. 11:25

 

분야별로 기술들이 지금 어느 정도에 도달해있는지, 그리고 그 기술들이 힘을 합치게 되면 (Convergence) 우리가 앞으로 10년 동안 마주할 변화가 지난 과거 수백년동안 겪은 변화보다 훨씬 더 클 것이며, 각 분야를 선도하는 회사들에 대한 언급과 함께 설명하고 있다.

인간의 뇌에서 본인 자신이 해당하는 일에 대한 생각을 담당하는 부분과, 본인 외부의 일에 대한 생각을 담당하는 부분이 다르다고 한다. 본인의 일에 대해서는 다른 사람에 대해 생각할 때보다 전두엽의 어떤 부분이 더 활성화되는데, (그래서 내로남불이 있는 것 같기도 하다) 여기서 신기한 건 미래의 나 자신에 대해 생각할 때 우리 뇌는, 나 자신이 아니라 타인의 일이라고 생각한다고 한다.

따라서 자연적으로 미래에 일어날 일에 대해서는 덜 민감하게 생각하게 되는데, 이 책은 이름은 모르겠지만 그 둔감한 뇌의 부분을 엄청나게 자극시켜주는 책이다.

책을 읽으면서 투자 아이디어를 많이 얻을 수 있었다.

1. The Power of Convergence

The more miles an autonomous car drives, the more data it gathers-and data is the gasoline of the driverless world.

Hong Kong to Singapore in twenty-two minutes.

Studies done with fMRI show that when we project ourselves into the future something peculiar happens: The medial prefrontal cortex shuts down. This is a part of the brain that activates when we thing about ourselves. When we think about other people, the inverse happens: It deactivates. And when we think about absolute strangers, it deactivates even more.

You'd expect that thinking about our future selves would excite the medial prefrontal cortex. Yet the opposite happens. It starts to shut down, meaning the brain treats the person we're going to become as a stranger. And the farther you project into the future, the more of a stranger you become.

This is why people have a tough time saving for retirement or staying on a diet or getting regular prostate exams-the brain believes that the person who would benefit from those difficult choices isn't the same one making those decisions.

Even under normal conditions, these built-in features of our neurobiology make us blind to what's around the bend.

This is the real power of a user-friendly interface-it democratizes technology. By allowing nonexperts to play, an interface allows a technology to scale. And fast. -> Etherium

We see this triple trend of decreasing size and cost, and increasing performance everywhere.

It's an era of incredibly personalized medical care, where the tools of life have become tools for the preservation of life, and many of the diseases that plagued earlier generations have begun to fade from memory. -> personalized health supplement!

While each force functions independently, their real effect is combinatory.

Sensors add intelligence to our appliances, but they also add hours to our lives.

When it comes to raising staggering sums of money in an eyeblink, little can compare with initial coin offerings (or ICOs). Emerging out of the cryptocurrency realm, ICOs are a new form of crowdfunding underpinned by blockchain technology. Startups can raise capital by creating and selling their own virtual currency-called either "tokens" or "coins." These tokens give you ownership in the company (or, at least, voting power) and the promise of future profits, or can take the form of a security, representing fractional ownership of a piece of real estate or the like.

2. The Rebirth of Everything

Author Jeremy Rifkin points out that all major economic paradigm shifts share a common denominator. "At a moment in time,", Rifkin told Business Insider, "tree defining technologies emerge and converge to create . . . an infrastructure that fundamentally change the way we manage power and move economic activity across the value chain. And those three technologies are new communications technologies to more efficiently manage economic activity, new sources of energy to power the economic activity, and new modes of mobility . . . to more efficiently move the economic activity." --> 해운에 적용시켜보면, Cost - 금융비 (ICO & STO) / 환경규제 / 3D Printing?

By replacing premade ingredients with premade experiences, the experience economy is a new kind of disruptive business model satisfying a new kind of need. For most of history, we didn't want prepackaged experiences because life itself was the experience. Just staying safe, warm, and fed was adventure enough. Technology changed that equation.

For many, experiences-tactile, memorable, and real-have become more valuable than possenssions.

The boundary between the digital and the physical is beginning to fade.

Your AI already knows what you need.

When it comes to healthcare, the system itslef is often sicker than the patients. Even the terminology is misleading.

Just like the old tech, the new tech comes with trade-offs. But this time around, one of those rade-offs might be the end of auto insurance as we know it.

To return to our historical terms, it's as if the sailors who frequented Lloyd's started making deals directly with the blackboards, and everybody else was just left to drink their coffee in silence. -> 해상보험의 premium이 다른 보험 종류에 비해 어느정도 되는가? & 수익률

3. The Fast Future

It costs less to build a new wind farm or solar plant than it does to operate an existing coal plant.

Lithium-ion batteries have been everybody's initial solution to this problem. An exponential technology, these batteries have been dropping in price for three decades, plummeting 90 percent between 1990 and 2010, and 80 percent since. Concurrently, they've seen an elevenfold increase in capacity. But producing enough of them to meet demand has been an ongoing problem.

Flow batteries are the next part. While lithium-ion batteries store energy in solids like metal, flow batteries store energy in liquids like molten salt. As lithium is a scarce resource found in dry climates-and mining it requires a half-a-million tons of water for every ton of lithium-replacing it with cheap and abundant salt is a useful substitution.

Vision is about time horizons, how far we choose to look into the future.

Delayed gratification is the psychological term, and one distinguishing characteristic of our species is the ability to delay gratification beyond the limits of lifespan. Religions that shape behavior today by promising an afterlife tomorrow rely on this mechanism. No other animal can do this.

If you're trying to protect against existential risks-then you need to think long term.

Long-term proactive.

We tend to think linearly about the dangers we face, trying to apply the tools of yesterday to the problems of tomorrow. But we're going to experience a hundred years of technological progress over the next ten years. In fact, many of the most powerful technologies we'll have at our disposal-artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology-are only starting to come online. So yes, the threats we face might seem dire, but the solutions we already possess will only continue to increase in power.

Our species is a migratory one.

In 2016, half of all unicorns-those rare startups valued at more than $1 billion - were founded by immigrants, and each provided at least 760 new jobs. -> hardship, agility, adventurous, proactive -> innovative, 새롭게 보기

아이디어, 언급된 회사들

Quantum computer - Rigetti Computing

sensors

3D Printing - Made In Space, Nano Dimension (converged 3D printing and computation), Open Bionics - 주문제작, 창고 필요 없어짐

Data storage

Blockchain - Vatom (광고에 나오는 콜라가 내손에 오게하는) - micropayments - R3 & Ripple

Biotechnology - Illumina, CRISPR (human gemline engineering)

Longer lives - Samumed (늙은 세포에 재생 신호보내기)

Visual search - Pinterest

AI Assistant - Life-kind

Otoy - Rendering을 개인 PC가 아니라 클라우드에서 하도록 바꾼 것 - 홀로그램 관련 프로그램에 적용 가능

Light Field Lab - 홀로그램 관련 display

Affectiva - emotional recognition platform used by both gaming and the marketing industry

Lightwave - another emotional-computing startup, can capture not just the emotional state of an individual, but that of a whole crowd.

Ubimo, Cluep 비슷함.. 감정 인식 관련

Magic Leap - Augmented Reality. AR glasse

BCI (Brain-Computer Interfaces)

DxtER - detects over fifty common ailments. Noninvasive medical sensors and a diagnostic AI accessible via app.

Woebot - working on mental health.

Celularity - can creat CAR-T in blk and at speed, getting drugs to patients in hours after diagnosis. 항암치료

Insilico Medicine - 신약 개발 단계에 AI 등 사용하여 빠르게 개발

Individually customized medicine -> Algo care?

Unity Biotechnology - senolytic therapies

Samumed - anti-aging, hair-loss, alzheimer's drug

crowdsurance

crowdlending - Prosper, Funding Circle, Lending Tree

Wealthfront - AI based wealth management

Etherisc - decentralized insurance ! 완전 흥미롭다

Good Money - microfinance

eXp Realty - cloud-based national real estate brokerage

Plenty Unlimited, Aero-Farms - indoor agriculture, vertical farming

Flow batteries

QuantumScape - solid state batteries

ChargePoint

Long Now Foundation - long term thinking

Airbnb

Estonias - every government related works are done electronically

Blue Origin - rocket capable of shooting people and payloads off Earth, into space, and to the Moon.

몰랐던 단어, 표현들

impetus - momentum

accolade - honour, tribute

parlance - language (parle - 빠ㅎ레, 말하다)

molasses 당밀 / it's so molasses slow

trepidation - fear

vertigo - dizziness

grope - scrabble, 잘 안보이는데 만지고 찾고.. 뭐 그런거 / 성적으로 만지작 거리는 느낌으로 쓰일 수도 있음.

squishy - soft and moist

burgeoning - flourishing / burgeoning global population

bifurcation - 두개로 나뉘는거를 왜이렇게 어렵게 말하는거야ㅎㅎㅎㅎ

gamut - range

arid - dry

demise - death

strife - conflict

exodus - 성경에서 모세가 이집트에서 데리고 탈출한 이스라엘 사람들, 이민자

outlandish - weird

other-worldly - 딴 세상의.. 신비로운?

pulpit - 교회 단상

revving - increasing

pathology - 병리학, 병의 원인 공부

nonperishable - non-biodegradable

tote - carr

riotous - disruptive, 걍 강조

quintet - a group of five people or things

conspiring - adj. about joining forces / v. 음모를 꾸미다, plot / The exponentials are conspiring in their favor.

trailblazing - introducing new ideas

coin - invent / the term McKinsey coined to describe this kind of AI-driven, sensor-laden insurance is "pay as you live".

unassailable - impenetrable

off-limits- 무리다

confer - grant

virility - manness

senolytic therapies - 특정 cell만 Kill

fraily - being weak

osteoporosis 골다공증

cataracts 백내장

maladies of decrepitude - 노인성 질환

arthritis - 관절염

afflict - 괴롭히다

cartilage - 연골

progenitor 선조

haywire - 얽힘

stave off - 사전에 막다

obsolescence - 노화

senescent - 늙은

snippet - small piece

dispirited - 영혼, 희망 없는

sift - 거르는 것

skirmish - short argument

prophylactic - 보호장비

dilation - 팽창

deluge - flood

got in a spat - spat, 사소한 싸움

renowend - 유명한

grimace - 찡그림

- trilogy - 3부작

- converge - 수렴하다, 좌표평면에서 수렴하는 느낌

- palpable - perceptable / a palpable acceleration in the pace of change in their own businesses and the world.

- overarching - comprehensive / overarching trend of convergence

- nimble - agile, able to move quickly

- dubious - doubtful

- gridlock - traffic congestion

motley - many-coloured 다양한?

magnate - tycoon, mogul

belie - contradict

get off the ground - begin

strung - hang

zanier - crazier

plethora - abundance, 많은

incarnation - 인간화, 구현, 몸/형체가 부여된 것

ire - anger

astounding - surprising, astonishing

hops on the back of ~~ - ~ 의 경향을 같이 타다, ~ 에 같이 적용을 받다 / it hops on the back of Moore's Law

potent - powerful

behemoth - 거대괴물

gargantuan - enormous

swarm - bee hive

ungodly - unreasonably

deft - skillful, adept / need to be debt enough to draft ~

fuselages - 비행기몸통, 퓨세라-지

blurry - 흐릿한

blitzkrieg - 전격전, 독일어

downright - completely / we are downright helpless in the face of convernging ones

in the face of - when confronted with, despite

accountrement - equipment, stuff

fretting - worry

drudgery - hard work

swatch - 샘플 천 조각, 땅 일부

quiver - tremble

foray - raid, attack

apathy - indifference / Tesla's rapid rise to prominence shook the major automotive companies out of their electric car apathy.

guzzler - eat or drink something reedily

irate - angry

lexicon - 사전

innocuous - harlmess

confluence - convergence

amp up - increase

a slew of - a lot of

decimate - destroy

duress - force / under duress

got hitched - got married

upheaval - distruption

brink - edge / It's on the brink of autonomous car displacement, which is on the brink of flying car disruption, which is on the brink of Hyperloop and rockets-to-any-where decimation.

contraption - 새로 만든 복잡한 것

blistering - intense, savage 원래 명사는 물집인데 형용사로 이렇게 쓰임

usher - guide, escort

deception - 사기, 기만

sagacious - wise, clever

dexterious - 손재주있는

trounce - defeat heavily in a contest

lovelorn - unhappy because of 짝사랑

rut - 틀에 박힌 / the very first road was rutted

wilderness - 야생의 땅

crept toward - move slowly (creep)

bandwidth - 대역폭 / The maximum amount of data transmitted over an internet connection in a given amount of time

staggering - surprising

kudzu - quick gorwing plant

skunk - 실험실

stratospherically - 성층권, to an extremely high degree

vying - competing

arteries - 혈관

bear out - support bore out

spooky - eerie

inertial - 관성

terra incognita - unknown territory

blizzard - 눈보라

lithe - agile

lumbering - clumsy

flinging - 갑자기 움직임

hernia - 탈장

bashing - strike hard, criticize severely

deftly - in a clever way

chasm - 협곡

rickety plan - shaky wooden bridge

banner one

binaural - sound related

verisimilitude - 실제와 아주 비슷

cadaver - 시체

clunky - solid, heavy, old-fashioned

bionics - 생체공학

accrue - accumulate

monikers - nickname

intractable - unmanageable

quagmire - swamp, marsh

volition - the power of using one's will

puddle - 물 웅덩이

scum - 찌꺼기

bevy - group, gang

protagonist - title role, supporter, leading character

mishap - accident, trouble

dank - wet, moist, chilly

subset - a part of a large group

germline - 생식 세포

parlance - language, speak

pacified - calm

bonanza - sudden increase, 행운

lode - 금광의 맥 같은

unfathomable - unthinkable

thrum - continous rythmming sound

a record-setting pace - 기록적인 속도

flunk - fail to reach a require standard

resounding - enormous

unabashed - shameless

squander - misuse, waste

cranial - relating to skull

egalitarian - 평등주의자

upend - 뒤바꿔놓다 / ICOs upend the traditional ways capital is raised. = invert

detritus - debris, waste

biomimicry - 생체모방

iteration - 되풀이

ulterior - 최종의

square off - fight, argue, begin a conflict

interspersed - scatter

fortuitous - chance, unpredictable luck

throe - agony

minted - rich

instrumental - involved, influential, helpful

marshal - gather, combine

feeling the pinch - experience hardship

upheaval afoot - disruption

nestled - settled, or lie comfortably

wage - carry on, conduct

vestige - remainder

agrarian - 농경의

take hold - start to have an effect

draw on - 사용하다

tactile - connected with a sense of touch

extol - praise

staid - quiet, serious

plunge - jump

annals - 연간 기록

strangehold - 급소

dither - hesitate

unber-creator

fabled - famous

virulence - 독성

euphemistically - 완곡하게

three-pronged approach - multiple methods

kept it sidelined - 배제하다

abetted - assist

pars with - 똑같다

parse - 분석, decoding 하다

impediment - 방해

placenta - 태반

immunological - 면역학적인

rife - general, common / in places rife with corruption

graft - shoot, bribery, corruption

ensue - happen, result, follow

aversion - a strong dislike

endow - provide

cutin - 식물..겉에..왁스같은

it's par for the course - 당연한거다...

rampage - violence

plunk down - 세게 내려놓다 / Global automakers have already plunked down more than $300 billion in investments.

In earnest - to a greater extent, more serious than before

obliteration - eradication

garner - gather, collect

contentious - controversial

쓰고픈 표현들

How entrepreneurs have been harnessing the technology to build world-changing business in near-record time.

Yet all of these solutions pale in comparison to quantum computing.

To put this in broader terms,

tyranny of the majority - 다수의 횡포

It's quality and quantity on demand.

Where nanotechnology and AI are woven into the fabric of everyday life.

The book answers questions in a contextually relevant and engaging fashion.

Technological acceleration appears to be leaving no stone unturned.

Cost remains an issue.

Norwegians really got behind the idea, making 52 percent of their 2017 new car purchases electric.

We want to highlight five developments that are helping turn the tide.

It's been sharing the limelight with automation.

Make no mistake, ~~

The next decade could see whole categories of work start to become memories.

What garnered less attention was their claim that ~.

It's no wonder signals get crossed and side effects occur.